film art future

Reimagining Film Fests Panel

After I published my recent piece on film festivals (which also ran in IndieWire), I started having a discussion with Rebecca Green of the Dear Producer newsletter about many things, including what the film fest of the future might look like. She invited me to a panel she’s hosting on the subject – this Friday at 2pm ET – and you can register for it here. I’ll be joining a few people I think are among the smartest in the biz – Karin Chien, Marilyn Ness and Rebecca (moderating) to imagine what it would look like to re-imagine festivals in a way that helps everyone – the festivals, filmmakers and audiences.

One of the ways I’ve been thinking about this panel is – if festivals didn’t exist at all, what would we create from scratch? I think that helps frame the discussion in a different manner than usual. It’s also a question I asked in a post back in 2013 – and that I return to often- “The question should be, what do filmmakers need most now? And is what they need something that a festival can help with, or do we need to start something different to solve this need? If filmmakers got together in the same spirit that led them to create film co-ops and festivals (and filmmaker organizations, and magazines, and…) then what would they make together today?” Of course, festivals also must serve audiences, and they’re all trying to survive a global pandemic. But the hope is by asking what would be build that would be most helpful for filmmakers (all of whom are coming with different needs, too, btw), then maybe we can add these ideas to what gets built out of this crisis. It is one of many different conversations being had right now – I’ve been on two other zoom panels about it this week alone, and know of two more (at least), but it’s one I hope will be interesting. 

Join us for the discussion on Friday.

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Amc_Azon…but, which AMC?

The big media news this week was that Amazon might buy AMC, but the problem was – no one was sure whether that meant AMC Theaters or AMC Networks. For an entire day, Wall Street and Hollywood were prognosticating on what it meant for Amazon to buy one of the biggest theater chains, and then…whoops, it might be that a reporter made a mistake on whether it was the stock ticker of AMC (theaters) or AMCX (Networks) about which they were reporting. (!!!) What’s even crazier is that both moves would make perfect sense, and that shows just how seismic are the potential changes coming to the media industry – neither case would be surprising, and we all expect deals like this to happen almost daily as the economy rearranges the business.

I’ve been predicting that Amazon or Netflix would buy one of the major chains for awhile now, and in that same linked post, I also predicted that IFC – which is part of the AMC Network – would be acquired soon, too – and that was BC. If you look back at what happened after the 1918 flu, it was a lot of consolidation, with the big studios getting bigger and the little guys disappearing. I suspect we’ll see the same as a result of this pandemic, and in addition to one or both of these AMC’s getting bought, I predict a lot more mergers and acquisitions soon.

Some of this will be bad for indies, and consumers, but when it comes to the situation in the world of theatrical, I can see some silver linings. The first reaction to any consolidation is negative, because it would mean Amazon (or some other conglomerate, but Amazon is the biggest one) would be swallowing another part of the world. But while I’m not usually an Amazon-apologist, I don’t think their taking over AMC Theaters would be half-bad, and it might even be good for both makers and consumers of film. Sounds crazy, I know, but bear with me.

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Innovation vs. Inertia

Innovation vs. Inertia. That’s the tug of war I’m feeling most during these crazy times. If you know me and read this newsletter, you can guess which one I prefer. I want to see more innovation coming out of this crisis. But while everyone says they’re innovating, I feel that inertia is winning out. It often does. It’s always easier to maintain the status quo, and during a time of crisis, just getting back to the status quo can seem like a big win.

I admit – it would be nice to go back to the world I was living in around early March. But in actuality, we’re learning that in early-March, we just thought we were living in the BC. In actuality, the virus was probably already in Europe as early as November, and in the US by January, if not earlier. Underneath the calm, we were already in the middle of the crisis. Inertia was killing us, and we didn’t even know it.

Likewise, the film business wasn’t all hunky-dory before this crisis hit. I don’t care what part of the film business you work in – if you are honest with yourself, I’m pretty sure you’d admit that the old system wasn’t working all that great. Whether you’re a filmmaker, or a festival programmer, a sales agent, a brand film marketer, or a studio mogul, the status quo hasn’t been great for awhile. Heck, even Netflix and Amazon were dealing with debt, competition, standing out in an attention economy and runaway costs. Wherever you sat in the film world BC, things were shaky. There’s a reason Netflix’s break-out show was called House of Cards

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Quarantine Questions

McCarthy in Deadline

Some questions on my mind these past few days of quarantine, in no particular order.

What’s Up With Online Film Festival Timing? – While CPH:DOX had a seemingly successful online festival (see below), I have serious questions as to how this works for other fests. But my number one question remains – in a virtual world, why are all of these online festivals taking place at different time periods, dictated by old systems built to avoid conflict, when they could all take place at the same time and amplify their message? Most of them are showing the same films anyway, and even with their idiosyncrasies built in, it seems to me that it would be better to move your dates, slow down a bit and explore the power of collaboration and joint-marketing instead of just plowing ahead. 

Whither the Trifecta/Fall Festivals? – I’ve heard rumors that the Trifecta (Venice, Telluride and Toronto) Festivals plan to take place in some form this September, along with many regional Fall film festivals. But I give you one quote: “There have been 10 influenza pandemics in the past 250-plus years—two started in the northern hemisphere winter, three in the spring, two in the summer and three in the fall. All had a peak second wave approximately six months after emergence of the virus in the human population, regardless of what initial introduction occurred.” (emphasis mine), This comes from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine‘s expertly named report – Rapid Expert Consultation on SARS-CoV-2 Survival in Relation to Temperature and Humidity and Potential for Seasonality for the COVID-19 Pandemic (April 7, 2020). Let’s do the math: March+6=September. So either these festivals get cancelled or we show up there and risk dying. That math doesn’t work – and your potential attendees know it, even if you and your board don’t, Fall festival folks.

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Inventing the New Reality

Rube Goldbergin’ some Sanitizer

Last week, I looked at all of the ways I think the film industry is going to be impacted by this crisis, and how we won’t be going back to normal. I promised a Part Two that would be more positive, but remember that I did post positive thoughts just a week earlier. If you are looking for a list of clear solutions, quit reading now. I don’t have them, and I don’t think anyone else does, either. Instead, here’s some thoughts on how we should approach this new reality – a mindset we might bring to the situation – in the form of some slogans we would do well to remember. These are mainly written towards arthouse/indie filmmakers, but I think they apply to branded content folks (my other audience) as well.

It’s not til the Tide Goes Out that You See Who’s Swimming Naked
Often attributed to Warren Buffet, I think this slogan applies pretty well to the film business right now (all business?). While a lot of the damage from the crisis is unique – so many people losing jobs at once, no one can gather or work together, etc. – there’s also a fair amount of things that always sucked about the film business, but this crisis just laid them bare, to where we can’t deny their reality any longer. Guess what? Festivals – other than the top 5-6 – never helped sell films. As Marj Safinia said in a group conference call I was on recently – that was a false security blanket that has now been removed. The indie film world, and docs in particular, were never a sustainable career-path.  Arthouse distribution and exhibition was always a shitty business. A lot of this was a house of cards. It sucks to have a band-aid ripped off fast, but the pain ends quicker. I know this sounds pessimistic, but it’s not – now that we’ve been forced to collectively realize that few of us have our pants on below those Zoom screens, we can also start to build something based less on fiction and more on the reality we now know we live in.
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Closing the windows in response to Coronavirus

With Coronavirus in the news and hitting the stock market, I’ve received many newsletters and updates on how it might impact the film business. Here’s a straightforward and pretty decent one from the Arthouse Convergence about how to stay prepared as a theater owner, for example, and here’s Variety reporting on how Netflix (and similar companies) might benefit from people staying home and watching television. But I’ll make a bigger bet – if we see a serious quarantine from the coronavirus pandemic, we might see an irreversible impact on film windowing practices, as film companies see the benefits of marketing directly for home viewing and don’t turn back.

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Sundance and BrandStorytelling quick takes.

Park City in January. Again. This was my 21st year attending Sundance/Slamdance, so I was old enough to drink…damn that Dry-January though! And for the past several years, I’ve also been attending Brand Storytelling, up in Deer Valley, which has become a must-attend event for those who dabble in anything to do with brands and content. Many in the industry complain about attending Sundance each year, or express joy when they can skip it, but I consider it a privilege to be so lucky as to be able to work in an industry that allows me to attend, even if it can be ridiculous at times. Anyway, here’s my quick takeaway’s (QuiTa’s in Quibi speak) from Park City 2020 (no film reviews here, as I didn’t see enough films to comment):

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Curation Needed

What did you watch over the Holidays/New Year?

I spent the Holidays and New Year taking some time off from work, and almost completely off my phone/social media, and used the time to watch a lot of movies and read even more books. Just before I left the online world behind (save streaming), I wrote my predictions for 2020, but I left off one because I doubted it would come true. That prediction was, without editing:

We may finally get some help in finding what we want to watch – We’ve reached information/content overload when it comes time to find something to watch on SVOD, AVOD or our millions of other options, including in theaters. Not only can I no longer remember what films I need to see, I can’t even remember which services host my favorite shows any longer. Way back in 2012, I started a company called Flicklist, with Ted Hope, that hoped to solve this problem (we failed, long story). We weren’t the first – Letterboxd and GoWatchIt launched in 2011 – and many similar services have launched over the years (iGems.TV and ReelGood, among the better ones). None have really been successful, or even solved all of the problems around discovery and remembrance of films – but just this month (ed: Dec, 2019), JustWatch acquired GoWatchIt, and reports are that the combined company will keep improving its services. I can’t predict whether they will finally build the universal film/show search engine we need, but I do hope that someone will finally build what we need in 2020. 

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Ten Predictions for Indie/Arthouse Film

Last week, I ran my predictions for branded content, both here and in a guest post for Brand Storytelling. This week, I’ve got my predictions and wishes for indie/arthouse films in 2020. I say wishes, not just predictions, because as you’ll see below, some of these are clearly more about what I wish, or hope, will happen than what I predict with any certainty. Not that I hope all of my predictions come true either – in fact, I hope I am wrong about the more pessimistic predictions. I’ve been writing predictions for the film world since 2006, and while I haven’t kept a running total, I’ll admit that some of them have been dead-wrong, while more than a few have been pretty accurate, if sometimes off by a year. So I freely admit in advance that I might be wildly wrong. At any rate, here goes:

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Ten Predictions (Hopes) for Branded Content in 2020

I’ve been writing top-ten prediction lists for film and media since 2006 – yes, back when my predictions included the final end of VHS (!) and what Google buying Youtube (Oct. 2006) would mean for indies. Last year’s predictions included Netflix buying a theater (pretty much), more brand studios (yes, again), and that Amazon would buy MoviePass and merge it with Prime (nope). Ok, sometimes I strike out, but my list is as much a wish-list as a prediction, so without further ado, here’s my inaugural Top Ten Predictions (and Hopes) for Branded Content in 2020.
This full article is running on the BrandStorytelling Newsletter as a Guest Post – read the full post there. Here’s prediction number one:

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Some Facts from the Streaming Wars

Via StreamingObserver

A few tidbits from the streaming wars, just this week:

  • It is now estimated that the major streamers – Netflix, Apple+, Disney+, Hulu, Amazon Prime, HBO Max – will spend more than $30 Billion on content in 2020. This doesn’t even include Peacock, CBS All Access or the numerous other platforms. 
  • And in the fight for eyeballs to watch that content, they’re pouring billions into advertising, making up for the decline in advertising from other sectors (see below);
  • But less of that money is going into films, as more of it goes into episodic (tv) shows, originals and licensing of major library titles. Netflix’s film library has now dropped 40% since 2014, according to StreamingObserver. in 2014, Netflix had around 6,500 movies, and now it’s got 3,849. 
  • Yet even with that drop, Netflix dominated the “indie” Gotham Awards – winning more than half the awards given this week.
  • One could lament this fact, but let’s face it – one of those awards was for When They See Us, by Ava DuVernay (who was also honored), and while Netflix and other SVODs may be lessening their support for indie film overall, they are leading the way with diversity. This is no small matter. 
  • And let’s face it – Netflix is also a data company. If there was a compelling case for investing in buying more films – especially indie/arthouse films – they would be doing it. The data is showing them that too few people watch these films. The StreamingObserver article above makes it seem like film is losing out due to original content spend, but it’s losing out because that’s what people want.
  • Meanwhile, 3853 feature films were submitted to Sundance this year. Yes, that’s 4 more than Netflix offers. Let that sink in for awhile.
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“It’s a Disgrace” or Netflix vs. Theaters, again.

The Irishman Newspaper at the Belsasco, photo: me.

The Irishman opened this past Friday, and I finally saw it this week at the Belasco Theater. This is not a review, but it was great, and not just because it’s a Scorsese film with a great cast (Joe Pesci in particular), but because I saw it on Broadway, in a storied theater, that was a much more pleasant experience than seeing it at AMC, Regal or any other big chain theater. I mean, heck, there were only 2 pre-show trailers, no ads and it cost less than most movies in NYC. And Netflix added great touches, like phone booths in the lower lobby that played clips from the film, actual print newspapers with Hoffa headlines and funny fake ads, and some gag props on the bar that referenced key scenes in the movie (no spoilers here). A great experience all around.

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The Upcoming Crisis in Arthouse/Indie Film

From Vulture – a classic that Disney isn’t removing

More from the best of times, worst of times files. Three articles hit this week that obliquely touch on what I think is a big crisis facing the indie film sector – in the middle of a golden age for content – and the need for us to build more mechanisms to support indie and arthouse narrative films.

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Get While the Gettin’s: Or the Vicissitudes of this Market

Frothy Waters

A short one this week, as I’ve been on deadline for another article running soon elsewhere. It is a plumb crazy time in the film business – not unlike the financial markets, or our daily news.

On the one hand, this moment in the film business reminds me of a quote I read from Ray McKinnon in Garden & Gun: “ I always said that if you couldn’t get a role in In the Heat of the Night in those days, if you were an Atlanta actor, you should strongly reconsider your career choice. I actually played a crack dealer one year and got killed, and came back as the town newspaper editor.” Point is, the gettin’ was good for actors back then (and now).

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Netflix vs. Theaters…again

via Variety

Owen Gleiberman penned an “upper decker” of a review/slam of Scorsese’s The Irishman and Netflix’s release strategy this week in Variety when he wrote “Netflix, You Have a Problem: ‘The Irishman’ Is Too Good,” arguing that the film demanded a longer theatrical release before it hits streaming.

His entire argument can be summed up by his last paragraph:

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Perception vs. Reality & Other Sub-Genre news for Sept.26.2019

This week, the NYT reported that Female Artists made little progress in Museums, based on research from ArtNet. The study showed that while the perception is one of growing gender equity in the art world, the reality is that just 11% of museum acquisitions were of female artists in the last decade. And women artists make up just 2% of the global auction market.

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Dove sells Dads to Apple at TIFF; WeWork killing Real Work; Netflix wars and more Sub-Genre news for Sept 12.

Unilever’s Dove Mens+ Care funded film, DADs, lands at Apple during TIFF –  

Dads at TIFF via TIFF

Big news in the branded film space – and worth covering up front, I think. One of the big sales announcements at the Toronto International Film Fest (TIFF) was Dads, by Bryce Dallas Howard, which was picked up by Apple for its new Apple TV+ subscription service. The film was produced by (her father) Ron Howard, but most interestingly, it was funded by Dove Men+Care, a Unilever company (full disclosure, I’m working with Unilever on another project). In fact, they announced the partnership from the stage of the premiere.

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Unplugging; Brands; impact and film and more news.

Well folks, “below the fold” is the news for this week – and for awhile. As my longer-term readers know, I take every August off for a writing and social media vacation. Every year since 2010, which means for ten years now (!!!), I’ve unplugged from the web – except for work – for the entire month. I don’t check blogs, read any online news, f-around with Instagram, Facebook, Twitter, or any other social media. I am not lucky enough to be able to completely unplug – I do take emails from clients and other general work for the first two weeks of August, but then I actually stop checking emails for the latter half of the month and am completely off-line through Labor Day.

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Missing the Boat on Curation

Every brand is now a studio. Every day, a new brand enters the fray of content creation. They all want to be filmmakers. And I obviously think that’s a good idea in general, or I wouldn’t advise brands on how to do it, smarter. But at a time of superabundance, when the last thing the world needs is another movie, smart brands should be thinking more about curation than creation.

Mind you, I didn’t say every brand. People trust certain brands and not others, and curation only works when there’s trust involved.  But for those brands that have built such trust and have the following to prove it – there’s a unique opportunity, and a glaring gap in the market for smart curation.

As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, Joe Marchese wrote about curation and the attention economy for Redef recently, and pointed out: “…The brands, retailers, and media companies that understand how to operate in the current Attention Economy will become trusted curators and shape the future of culture and commerce.” (emphasis mine). 

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Surviving the Trifecta Dash, Fake film fests, brain machine interfaces, new branded content and more

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Getting inspiration from a teen filmmaker, and more news you can use for June

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Arts/Film Ethics, the State of AI & Film, the Doc Market and more news

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Entrepreneurial Producing, in memory of Steve Golin; Facebook & Blockchain & Film and More

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Ten Trends to Embrace in Branded Content and other Sub-Genre news for April 25

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Cleveland Rocks – or how to Run a Film Fest; and news on streaming, Branded Content and more

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Towards a New Public Media, and more Sub-Genre news for April 3

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The Skoll Report on Impact Entertainment and other Sub-Genre News for March 7

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Academy Thoughts – North Face Tuxedos and Acceptance Speeches, and other Sub-Genre news

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Five Sundance Takeaways, the death of Media and More Sub-Genre news

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Pre-Sundance 2019 Sub-Genre News – what I’ll be talking about at the Dance

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