Some Facts from the Streaming Wars

A few tidbits from the streaming wars, just this week:

• It is now estimated that the major streamers – Netflix, Apple+, Disney+, Hulu, Amazon Prime, HBO Max – will spend more than $30 Billion on content in 2020. This doesn’t even include Peacock, CBS All Access or the numerous other platforms. 
• And in the fight for eyeballs to watch that content, they’re pouring billions into advertising, making up for the decline in advertising from other sectors (see below);
• But less of that money is going into films, as more of it goes into episodic (tv) shows, originals and licensing of major library titles. Netflix’s film library has now dropped 40% since 2014, according to StreamingObserver. in 2014, Netflix had around 6,500 movies, and now it’s got 3,849. 
• Yet even with that drop, Netflix dominated the “indie” Gotham Awards – winning more than half the awards given this week.
• One could lament this fact, but let’s face it – one of those awards was for When They See Us, by Ava DuVernay (who was also honored), and while Netflix and other SVODs may be lessening their support for indie film overall, they are leading the way with diversity. This is no small matter. 
• And let’s face it – Netflix is also a data company. If there was a compelling case for investing in buying more films – especially indie/arthouse films – they would be doing it. The data is showing them that too few people watch these films. The StreamingObserver article above makes it seem like film is losing out due to original content spend, but it’s losing out because that’s what people want.
• Meanwhile, 3853 feature films were submitted to Sundance this year. Yes, that’s 4 more than Netflix offers. Let that sink in for awhile.

Stuff I’m Reading

Film

What is a documentary anymore? asks Dan Schindel in Hyperallergic – when you can arguably find great examples within video games, VR, video essays and even art exhibits. He gives this Sight & Sound link to many “best of” examples, and I went down a couple-day rabbit hole on Youtube and Vimeo catching up on the form. Great stuff. Dan’s looking for great examples too, so check out the article if you are interested in and want to explore/debate the changing nature of this form.

The Sundance 2020 Feature Line-up has been announced – Some great looking projects have been accepted. This year, they accepted 118 features from 15,100 submissions. 3853 of those were features (the rest, shorts), and for perspective, 1698 of those were US features. Of the 118 feature slots, just 65 were open in theory to US narratives (open, not all of these were programmed that way). I can’t really run percentages/acceptance rates without knowing how many of the features submitted were narratives vs. docs, etc. But the odds were against you. Kudos to those who made it, and kudos for Sundance on good diversity numbers (broken down in the link). 

Matt Stoller explains exactly why the DOJ scrapping the Paramount Consent Decrees is a bad idea – because we still have monopolies in the film business, it will hurt smaller chains and indies, and makes no sense. Or as he says,  “At any rate, I’m sort of glad Delrahim has done something so stupid and obvious. The exhibition business is already very concentrated. Imperial Disney is doing what it’s doing, and streaming is basically designed under the current public policy framework to become a fight among monopolists over market power. It’s time to have a real conversation about vertical integration in the big media industry. Much as China’s clumsy censorship of the NBA’s Houston Rockets executive made the stakes of our China policy obvious to policymakers, the proposed end of the Paramount Consent Decrees could spark a more open debate among artists in Hollywood about whether they want to have a creative industry anymore, and how political they are willing to get if they decide they actually do.”

Martin Scorsese on The Irishman: ‘Please, please don’t look at it on a phone’ –  Scorsese, like most auteurs and cinephiles, cringes at the notion you might watch his film on a smaller screen. I agree, but it’s a lost cause, as evidenced by the shots of people watching it on their watches in the article. Or worse:

Streaming

How To Build A Great Video Streaming App – Oh, if it was only this easy. But it’s a good primer on the terms, and the basics of how streaming apps work

How Home Entertainment Companies Are Navigating the Streaming Apocalypse –  DVD, especially 4K UHD DVD, isn’t dead, in fact sales grew last year. But it’s a tough business. Cinephiles will spend for higher quality, but will anyone else?

US lagging on mobile video streaming due to spectrum crunch – The US is falling far behind on the video experience, because we allow monopolies to control our broadband internet and mobile, and they still suck. Ditch those channel subscriptions, but you are still stuck with the same evil assholes for your internet streaming speeds.

Branded Content

Everyone’s moving to branded content because advertising doesn’t work, especially in an SVOD world…except for the actual SVOD players, who are spending billions on ads, reports the WSJ. Analysts estimate SVOD platforms will spend multiple billions on advertising, helping to fill a gap where others slow down. Pretty soon, perhaps we’ll just have SVOD and ads for SVOD, and nothing else? Or will SVOD have to start doing product placement in their own shows? Crazy times ahead!

The most disturbing horror film of the season is Peloton’s new commercial –  A must watch, and as creepy as the headline and the comments. And it even impacted their stock, which dropped 9% in one day after the ad dropped. And they say advertising doesn’t work…

ET go home: why Spielberg’s alien shouldn’t be flogging wifi – Spielberg Sells Out ET for a commercial -and a shitty one at that. WTF? Have you no decency, sir?

VR/AI/Gaming
A Go Master (the best) has quit because he can’t beat AI – A South Korean Go Master quit because AI is that much better. And I’ve recently seen a film (coming out soon) about an AI that can beat humans at debate!  

Then again, there’s a lot of AI snake-oil, and this slide deck (PDF) shows you how to recognize it. (HT to Unsupervised Learning for both of these links)

Reports Say Amazon Will Enter Game Streaming: Should Competitors Be Worried? –  No surprise here, but Amazon is about to control game streaming as well as everything else we do.

Social Media

Mass media vs. social media – A good corrective to the narrative that social media handed Trump the presidency, when mass media was doing its own (crap) job at covering the news correctly. Which had more impact? Definitely the regular news.

Miscellany 

TikTok has 1.5 billion downloads, and is beating Facebook and Instagram. It is 3rd in downloads only to WhatsApp and Messenger. I still bump into film people and marketers who don’t even know what TikTok is, in spite of the press and popularity. Yes, it’s a young person’s (and mom’s) medium, but it’s one to know well.