Archives for svod

Ten Predictions for Indie/Arthouse Film

Last week, I ran my predictions for branded content, both here and in a guest post for Brand Storytelling. This week, I’ve got my predictions and wishes for indie/arthouse films in 2020. I say wishes, not just predictions, because as you’ll see below, some of these are clearly more about what I wish, or hope, will happen than what I predict with any certainty. Not that I hope all of my predictions come true either – in fact, I hope I am wrong about the more pessimistic predictions. I’ve been writing predictions for the film world since 2006, and while I haven’t kept a running total, I’ll admit that some of them have been dead-wrong, while more than a few have been pretty accurate, if sometimes off by a year. So I freely admit in advance that I might be wildly wrong. At any rate, here goes:

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Some Facts from the Streaming Wars

Via StreamingObserver

A few tidbits from the streaming wars, just this week:

  • It is now estimated that the major streamers – Netflix, Apple+, Disney+, Hulu, Amazon Prime, HBO Max – will spend more than $30 Billion on content in 2020. This doesn’t even include Peacock, CBS All Access or the numerous other platforms. 
  • And in the fight for eyeballs to watch that content, they’re pouring billions into advertising, making up for the decline in advertising from other sectors (see below);
  • But less of that money is going into films, as more of it goes into episodic (tv) shows, originals and licensing of major library titles. Netflix’s film library has now dropped 40% since 2014, according to StreamingObserver. in 2014, Netflix had around 6,500 movies, and now it’s got 3,849. 
  • Yet even with that drop, Netflix dominated the “indie” Gotham Awards – winning more than half the awards given this week.
  • One could lament this fact, but let’s face it – one of those awards was for When They See Us, by Ava DuVernay (who was also honored), and while Netflix and other SVODs may be lessening their support for indie film overall, they are leading the way with diversity. This is no small matter. 
  • And let’s face it – Netflix is also a data company. If there was a compelling case for investing in buying more films – especially indie/arthouse films – they would be doing it. The data is showing them that too few people watch these films. The StreamingObserver article above makes it seem like film is losing out due to original content spend, but it’s losing out because that’s what people want.
  • Meanwhile, 3853 feature films were submitted to Sundance this year. Yes, that’s 4 more than Netflix offers. Let that sink in for awhile.
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Get While the Gettin’s: Or the Vicissitudes of this Market

Frothy Waters

A short one this week, as I’ve been on deadline for another article running soon elsewhere. It is a plumb crazy time in the film business – not unlike the financial markets, or our daily news.

On the one hand, this moment in the film business reminds me of a quote I read from Ray McKinnon in Garden & Gun: “ I always said that if you couldn’t get a role in In the Heat of the Night in those days, if you were an Atlanta actor, you should strongly reconsider your career choice. I actually played a crack dealer one year and got killed, and came back as the town newspaper editor.” Point is, the gettin’ was good for actors back then (and now).

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The Crisis in Indie Film History Viewing (and Preservation)

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Cannes, Patagonia Sues Trump, and other news

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